Trump  vs  Clinton

If Hillary Wins, She Loses  ………  and Trump Wins Either Way!

I’m pitching this article mainly at residents of the United States  –  but also at astute readers in other parts of the world.

I’m not a Republican (the Australian equivalent of a ‘Liberal’ voter).  I’m not a Democrat (the Australian equivalent of a ‘Labor’ voter).  If anything, I’d say I’m an Independent.

That said, I’ll ‘come out of the closet’ (not that those who know me best will be surprised by this!) and declare that:

• If I lived in the United States I’d vote for “The Don” come November (because in my opinion he’s by far the lesser of 2 evils); and
• in the Australian Federal election in July I voted for the “Shooters, Fishers and Farmers” party – with high preferences going to the “Australian Liberty Alliance” and then Pauline Hanson’s party. The “Family First” party (the last remaining bastion of Christian values in this rapidly crumbling country) wasn’t far behind!

I’m a fiscal (ie: financial) conservative  –  which means, amongst other things, that I don’t believe (or even for a moment trust!) in what world governments, big business (and in particular the corrupt moguls on ‘Wall Street’) and major banks are doing to the world’s economy.

And, as a general rule, I HATE talking politics  –  but I’ve just got to say this  ……………  whether Trump loses the November election or not (and right now it looks a bit more likely Americans will be saying “President Clinton” again soon), he’s won a much bigger battle.  Trump is the game changer.

There’s a disenfranchised (that’s a fancy schmancy word for ‘pissed off’!) middle and lower class in the United States that has seen globalisation and immigration (both legal and illegal) lower their wages and standard of living.  They’re angry.  They’re disillusioned  ……………  and Trump speaks their “language.”

Globalisation

Like anything, globalisation needs to be controlled / moderated, but I believe that, all in all, globalisation is a good thing  ……………  but I think it’s well and truly reached its useful peak for now.

Globalisation has ended up putting very different political and religious factions right up into each other’s face.  At this point it’s hurting more than helping most workers in the United States and in most western / first world countries, although the reality is that many western / first world countries had high-paying jobs that just weren’t justified in the new global world where, amongst others, Chinese, Indian and Mexican workers could do the same jobs at lower wage rates.

The truth is that the world is going to have to regroup around such political and religious cultural lines before globalisation can advance again.

This isn’t just another debt-deleveraging depression  ……………  and I believe that all western / first world countries have a revolution coming in their respective political, social and cultural realms.  I think that there’ll be a breakdown  well  before any breakthrough.

The impending global contraction will see greater protectionist policies in trade  –  just like what we saw during the Great Depression of the 1930s.  In fact, I reckon that far too many things will reek of the Great Depression all over again.

However, it will also see a realignment along cultural lines  –  like conservative and liberal (in the United States), like Labor and Liberal (in Australia), like Sunni and Shia (in the Middle East)  ……………  and like ‘higher income and lower income’ the whole world over.

The rising popularity of Trump on the right and Bernie Sanders on the left is a sign of this “great dissatisfaction” of the waning middle class.

But Trump strikes a greater chord because many people in the United States blame foreign workers and immigrants for their plight  –  more than the rise of the top 1% of the population.

In short, there are a lot of very unhappy (again, ‘pissed off’!) people in the streets of not only America  –  but also much of the western world right now.

The Contestants

‘Wile E. Coyote’ & ‘The Simpsons’

Trump is the disruptor in this battle.  His popularity swings wildly up and down, depending on the latest stupid / radical thing he says.  But, he’s very clever, just like Wile E. Coyote.  He’s saying exactly what the lower-educated and falling middle class is thinking.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is like Lisa Simpson: she’s smart, idealistic and wanting to change the world  ……………  but she’s boring and not that likeable and not at all trustworthy!

Bill Clinton is a bit like Bart Simpson: the bad boy everyone likes because he’s cool and charismatic  –  and their hair colour is about the same these days too!

There’s just one problem.  The November, 2016 election is going to have TWO winners and, as I said towards the beginning of this article, Trump faces a major victory  ……………  when, in all likelihood, he LOSES the election.

If the stock market starts to crash into the election, as I think is possible, it will work in Trump’s favour.  If the economy holds up, that will work in Hillary’s favour.  Either way, Trump’s already won!

I’m not sure that Trump ever really wanted to be President!  He wants something far more powerful:  a media empire!

I suspect that Trump:

• started his campaign to regain his falling ratings after The Apprentice lost ground;
• wanted to show the media that he could still get massive numbers of eyeballs on himself; and
• did better than he would have thought by tuning into the very ‘pissed off’ 30% to 40% of the United States electorate.

Trump hired Roger Ailes (the founder of the ‘Fox’ media network conglomerate) who’s been in the spotlight for sexual harassment scandals.  There is speculation that Ailes could bring some major anchors from ‘Fox’ over to a new Trump media network.

The Don’s campaign CEO is Stephen Bannon, a major media head from ‘Breitbart’ for conservatives.

Does Trump really want to win and become President?  Or does he want to make more money and have greater influence through his real strong suit:  the media?

Again, let me reiterate that I’m just giving you something to think about.  And I’m doing it because, in all seriousness, Trump has the power to create a US ‘Brexit’ style movement  –  a new ‘American Civil War’ of sorts  –  and, in particular, more a split between ‘the conservatives’ and ‘the liberals’ (Australian ‘Liberal’ and ‘Labor’ voters) that are more deeply divided in the United States than in any other major developed country.

Millions believe ‘the institution’ (ie: government) has gained too much power.  The markets are nearing eight long bull years, and the hard working men and women on the street haven’t seen any of that money.  In fact, they’ve seen less and less of it, in particular given that wages in the United States remain below 1999 levels!

Housing prices in the United States are back approaching unaffordable levels.

Debt is once again extreme  –  and rising  –  with lenders taking increasingly dangerous risks  –  which indicates to me that, clearly, the very stark lessons of the 2007 ‘sub-prime’ crisis have been forgotten or, more likely, conveniently ignored in favour of short-term profits!

Banks are falling apart across Europe and, only recently in the United States, Wells Fargo Bank shone a very bright spotlight on the corruption and greed that the disillusioned masses have always believed (or, more to the point, known!) is there  ……………  and rife!

If Hillary wins in November, she loses.  If anything  –  and I mean anything  goes wrong  –  the blame will be laid squarely at her feet given that she’s an integral part of ‘the establishment’  ……………  and in my respectful opinion there’s no way to keep this financial bubble going another 4 years because it’s been stretched to extremes and is showing signs of strain all over the place.

If Trump becomes President, it doesn’t matter what goes wrong  ……………  it’ll just prove his arguments against ‘the establishment’ and how the system is rigged.

If Trump loses, he becomes a major media mogul with more latitude to promote and guide his growing movement without the political correctness and shackles of actually being President in a split congress where it would be very hard for him to pass any legislation anyway!

Either way, Trump wins.  I actually think ‘The Don’ would be more powerful if he loses!

Look for the United States to split even more so  –  and in all likelihood into two or more regional factions under the leadership of Trump’s new conservative media empire.

First, ‘The Don’ took over the Republican Party  ……………  next is Fox media’s stronghold on the conservative sector.

I believe that Donald Trump is, if nothing else, sly like a fox!

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