Panama Papers Revisited

I recently published an article entitled:

“Panama Papers Revisited”

on this website.

You can read the article at:  http://sabas.net.au/articles/panama-papers-revisited/

In short, the article:

  • reflects on the fact that it’s a year ago this week since the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists launched the biggest investigation in journalism history: “The Panama Papers”; and
  • re-caps what the “Panama Papers” situation was (and continues to be) all about.

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

Posted in Advice, Agenda, Arrests, Banking, Bashar al-Assad, Behaviour, Biblical text, Billionaires, British Virgin Islands, Bureaucrats, Business, Caesar, Central banks, CEO, Communist Party, Communist Party elite, David Cameron, Fierce Debate, Financial Secrets, Franked Dividends, Fully Franked Dividends, Hypocrisy, ICIJ, International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, Investigation, Jersey, Kerry Packer, Kevin Rudd, law firm, Media, Millionaires, Mossack Fonseca, Most Powerful People, Offshore, Panama, Panama Papers, Peter Kerin, Political Pork-barrelling, Politicians, Pork-barrelling, Protests, Public Service, Public Service Superannuation, Resignations, Richest People, Rudd, Self-managed super fund, Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, SMSF, Steal, Strategy, Superannuation, Swiss, Swiss banks, Tax havens, Tax man, Taxman, Unfunded Public Service Superannuation, Union officials, Wayne Swan, Welfare | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are Men Happier

Are Men Happier

I recently published an article entitled:

“Why Men are Never Depressed”

on this website.

You can read the article at:  http://sabas.net.au/are-men-happier/

In short, the article contemplates:

  • “Are men just happier people than women?”; and
  • “If so, why?”,

because reading this article may well be just what you need to give you a laugh today.

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

Posted in Advice, Behaviour, Beliefs, Captivated, Paradox, Passion, Responsibility, Strategy, Vision | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Decision Timeline

choice-selectionI recently published an article entitled:

“The Decision Timeline”

on this website.

You can read the article at:  http://sabas.net.au/decision-timeline/

In short, the article:

  • questions how long it takes to change minds of customers / consumers;
  • considers what happens along ‘the decision timeline’; and
  • suggests that it’s much easier to find ‘a like-mind’ than to change a closed one.

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - onlinehttp://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

Credit for the above image goes to photographer Chris Goldberg.

Posted in Advice, Attitude, Behaviour, Beliefs, Believe, Brand Affinity, Brand Awareness, Brand Strategy, Business, Change, Consumption, Decisions, Influence, Marketing, Opinions, Persuading, Peter Kerin, Relationships, Strategy, Timeline, Transition | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Possibility of Optimism

I recently published an article entitled:

“The Possibility of Optimism”

on this website.

half-full-or-half-empty-photoYou can read the article at : http://sabas.net.au/possibility-of-optimism/

In short, the article:

  • suggests that pessimists have trouble making room for possibility; and
  • discusses the difference between ‘right now’ and ‘what might happen next’.

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Signature - online

Posted in Advice, Business, Engine of Optimism, Future Tense, Glass Half Empty, Glass Half Full, Harbinger of Doom, Optimism, Optimist, Pessimism, Pessimist, Peter Kerin, Present Tense, Vision | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Trump vs Clinton

I recently published an article entitled:

“Trump  vs  Clinton”

on this website.

donald-trump hillary-clinton

You can read the article at:  http://sabas.net.au/articles/trump-vs-clinton/
In short, the article:

  • ponders that, if Hillary wins in November, she loses ………  and Trump wins either way;
  • suggests that whilst globalisation is a good thing, it’s reached its useful peak for now; and
  • speculates as to whether or not Trump ever really wanted to be President!

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - onlinehttp://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

Posted in 1930s, Banking, Business, Debt, Donald Trump, Election, Globalisation, Great Depression, Hillary Clinton, Housing Prices, Labor and Liberal, Peter Kerin, Politics, Republican and Democrat, Strategy, Sunni and Shia, Welfare | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Welfare Discourages Marriage

I recently published an article entitled:

“How Welfare Discourages Middle-Class Marriages”

on this website.

marriage-strained

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can read the article at:  http://sabas.net.au/articles/welfare-discourages-marriage/

In short, the article:

  • refers to a recent study that found that 2% to 4% fewer couples marry if doing so would cut their welfare benefits; and
  • gives just one example of how and why the Centrelink system is so easy to exploit or, more to the point, abuse.

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - online

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

Posted in Advice, Peter Kerin, Research, Welfare | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Average and Exceptional

I recently published an article entitled:

“The  Difference  Between  Average  And  Exceptional”

on this website.

You can read the article at:  http://sabas.net.au/articles/average-and-exceptional/

In short, the article suggests that:

  • it’s the things that business owners do when their customer isn’t looking that creates true moments of delight for their customers / clients; and
  • what differentiates the average from the exceptional is not performance –  it’s preparation.

The article then continues with a case study that suggests that, if you want to be the best in the world, don’t start by trying to create the best product or service  –  start by working out how people want to feel and then help them feel that way!

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - online

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

Posted in Advice, Business, Peter Kerin, Start-ups, Strategy | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Hit Your Target

I recently published an article entitled:

How to Hit Your Target

on this website.  You can read the article HERE

businessman-bow-arrow-concept-determination-business-35566593 Hit Your TargetIn short, the article discusses why businesses, when setting future goals / targets, should look at FAR more than just some distant, hoped for achievements.

I ask that you reflect upon the facts that, in my respectful opinion:

  • Your actual target is not some distant outcome or a blurry vision of tomorrow.
  • Your actual target is how – and where – you’re aiming right now – and this is invariably affected by the totality of what’s happening around you today.

If you have the chance, please let me know your thoughts about the article.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - online

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

Credit for the above archery image goes to photographer ‘Max Lim’.
Posted in Advice, Business, Peter Kerin, Strategy | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Why Start-ups Fail

Why  Start-up  Businesses  Often  Fail

These are many, many reasons why new businesses fail. http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

struggle-13558200Just some of them include:

  • the cost of customer acquisition;
  • a concept that’s ahead of its time;
  • wrong market positioning;
  • too little income to survive;
  • no ‘problem solution’ fit for customers;
  • the wrong target market;
  • low customer adoption / take-up;
  • too early (ie: inadequate development before product / business launch);
  • not enough demand;
  • no real audience; and
  • too much ego.

What all reasons for failure point to is that, at the end of the day, the companies didn’t make something that enough people wanted.

It’s very easy to fall madly and blindly in love with our long contemplated concepts and ideas.

The trick to actual success, however, is to remove our rose-tinted glasses for just long enough to understand exactly why, in a world of virtually infinite choices, people will notice, care, choose and pay us for our product or service instead of that of a competitor.

Don’t tell your potential customers what you made or can do for them  –  tell them why it’s going to matter!

If you’d like to read a comprehensive list of reasons that start-up founders have cited for failing, click HERE.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - online

http://www.childproofingexperts.com/find-a-professional/peter-kerin/

 

Posted in Advice, Business, Peter Kerin, Start-ups, Strategy | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Shallow Chinese Stimulus

The  FMG  Litmus  Test

At the present time, government issued bond yields pretty much just give you your money back after inflation  –  if you’re lucky.

Often when you’re desperate for returns, you tend to ignore risk  –  which is what has been happening for a while now  –  and will likely continue well into the future, at least, that is, as long as central banks try to control the market through mere words and monetary deeds.

Yesterday, while stocks fell, gold bounced back from its recent losses.  It’s now around US$1,330 an ounce  –  or $1,774 an ounce in Aussie dollars.

Many commentators with whom I agree have, for some time, been talking about “the coming correction in gold”, and this correction has been in the works for a while.

However, here’s another reason to like gold (and silver) in the longer term.  Credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s (LINK) just released a disturbing new report showing projected corporate credit growth to 2020.

It expects corporate debt to expand by US$24 trillion over the next four years, thanks to low interest rates and what S&P describes as “ongoing central bank debt monetisation”  –  but, please, don’t ask me to explain that because, to be honest, I can’t.  You’re just as capable of (mis)interpreting it as I am!

Anyway, not surprisingly, S&P expect the lions’ share of the new credit growth to come from China.

According to “The Daily Shot”, China’s share of the credit pie will climb to 43% from its current 35% and China will be responsible for 62% of all new credit growth.

In my respectful opinion, that’s a real risk, given that China’s corporate debt market is already massive.  In fact, the S&P report states that more than half of the expected credit growth will come from already highly leveraged players.

It shouldn’t really be a surprise that a great deal (and a big percentage!) of this growth is coming from China.  Why?  Well, because corporates (and especially ‘state-owned enterprises’) borrow heavily in the knowledge that the government will bail them out if need be.

Right now, fear of default is not a big concern in China because it’s going through another one of its short lived growth spurts.  However, as the chart below (from Haver Analytics, Barclays Research) shows, much of the recent growth is the result of a huge increase in government infrastructure spending.

Chinese Growth

That huge increase in government infrastructure spending is represented by the dark blue line, ie: ‘public sector FAI’, which stands for ‘fixed asset investment’.

If you’re wondering why, in recent times:

  • the iron ore price has held up marginally; or
  • the Aussie dollar has been so resilient,

this big spike in Chinese government fixed asset spending is your answer.

As the above chart illustrates, the spike is on par with the huge 2008/09 Chinese government initiated stimulus program that resulted in an iron ore boom and helped Australia avoid the worst of the global recession.

Maybe “Kevin ‘07” speaking a bit of Chinese motivated the Chinese government to initiate that stimulus program just for little old Australia! J

Anyway, that 2008/09 stimulus program didn’t last, and, in my opinion, neither will the current one!

Worryingly for Australia, this latest round of stimulus hasn’t really done too much.  I believe that that’s because private sector investment continues to fall sharply – resulting in overall fixed asset investment declining as well.

So, what happens when the Chinese government’s latest stimulus efforts run out of steam?

It seems pretty obvious to me.  In short, and far as Australia is concerned:

  • iron ore prices will tumble back to their lowest of lows;
  • the Aussie dollar will ‘head south’; and
  • the Aussie government’s budget plans will again be under still further pressure.

We could still be a few months away from this reality though.

One market commentator for whom I have a great deal of time and respect likes to use Fortescue’s [ASX:FMG] share price as a barometer for the iron ore market.  Right now it’s doing well and, in the last week or so, has traded between a range of about $4.00 and $4.50.

However, a fall back below $3.50 would, I think, indicate that its run is coming to an end.

It could be a warning that conditions are changing in the iron ore market – and that much lower prices are on their way.

So, keep an eye on FMG because, in my opinion, it will tell you quite a lot about Australia’s overall prospects in the months to come.

Also, don’t forget to look at your holdings of physical gold and silver  –  and also of ‘real’ (ie: folding) cash.

Peter Kerin

Peter Kerin

Signature - online

Posted in Advice, Business, Peter Kerin | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments